Obama Campaign Ad Claims 22 months of job growth and 3.1 million jobs added
Politicians lie all the time. Voters accept it as part of the job. We hope for perhaps, 70%, or 80%, adherence rate to campaign promises. In the case of Obama , maybe 10%. He delivered on “health care reform” and “finance reform” for his base but little else.
And the political ads…
Yes we expect lies in political ads as well. But the one about 22 months of job growth caught my eye. It claims 22 months of private sector job growth, which is correct, 106,772,000 to 109,928,000, but there is quite a bit of information missing that would put our job picture into proper context. The private sector growth was an anemic 1.5% annual rate. The population grew at a 1.5% rate in that time, so what have we gained?
What the ad does not show is that the total private industries employment is down from 115,610, or 4.9%, from January 2008. We are still in a jobs recession. We are still negative jobs from 2008.
We spent trillions on “shovel ready” stimulus and did not even break even on past economic performance?
I guess not. More like misallocation of resources.
Where is the multiplier?
This is not the genuine jobs picture. This is just one tiny slice of the jobs picture. The total employment level since Obama has entered office has increased from 140,436,000 to 140,681,000, or a total of 245,000 jobs, or a 0.17% increase, or an annual rate increase of 0.05%, well below the population growth rate.
This is what the campaign ad is based on. Not so optimistic when the overall picture is looked at.
And no there was not 22 consecutive months of job growth. Total employment has grown 59% of the time, and declined 41% of the time under the Obama Administration.
A much better barometer to reflect the depression we are suffering would be the civilian labor force participation rate. This indicator peaked out at an annual rate of 67.1 in the late 90s when the federal government consumed 18.2% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Today it is at its lowest level since 1983 at 64.1%, reflecting the federal government increased consumption of the GDP, up to 25.3%.
Bigger government, less jobs. Someday this lesson will be driven home to Americans.
What should be equally disturbing for voters is the real personal disposable income per capita numbers. Per capita disposable income is down from $34,609 to $32,326, 6.6% since May 2008, and down 1.4% since Obama took office.
Total employment level is at best, inconsistent since Obama took office.
Prices, as reflected in the annual producer price index, are up from 171.2 (indexed 1982 = 100) to 200.2, a 16.9% increase. Apparently Main Street is not enjoying the inflationary boom going on, but hidden so well in the official consumer price index numbers. If one did not know better one would suspect a transfer of wealth from Main Street to Wall Street and government elites.
The GDP has increased from $12.6632 Trillion (chained 2005 dollars) to $13.4224 trillion, a 6% increase, or 2.2% annual rate, so why is real disposable income down 1.4%? Certainly we are not in a recession, right?
We are in a recession, the good part of the recession, the part where the crazy uncle runs out to Wal-Mart and buys a bunch of crap from China to sooth the pain of dad losing his job.
The Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate is the Lowest Since 1983 due to bad economic policies
What has been happening is with the money creation, and inflation, capital users, contractors, manufacturers, retailers, have been given false signals that income is growing, and have been spending accordingly. They are tricked into spending resources into the economy that are not needed.
The inflation is hiding the real decline in the economy, and capital producers will realize this overexpansion sooner, or later, and the contraction will occur. Some say this correction in “profits” and “expansion” is already happening. When the capital users realize they have over expanded more layoffs will occur. There will be no other alternative without genuine economic growth.
This is where we are, January, 2012.
An inflationary economy is transferring wealth from the middle-class to the elites and government. Most Americans lack proper economic education to understand why this is happening and the prospects of dictatorship have increased dramatically.
We have an economy not producing real job growth with the very real possibility of more job losses in the near future.
There is more debt, more government, and in my opinion three months overdue for a massive deleveraging and correction.
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