CPI Officially 4.8% Annually for April, Unofficially 7.7% NSA

The Consumer Price Index for April 2011 increased 0.4% from last month. For the year, not seasonally adjusted (NSA), the Consumer Price Index for all Urban Consumers (CPI-U) has risen 3.2%, the highest since October 2008. The March CPI monthly increase was 0.5%.

Going through the numbers the official not seasonally adjusted number is 3.2% but using the data from the St. Louis Federal Reserve the number is 7.7%. Breaking it down transportation was up 33.3% annually last month.

CPI officially up 4.8 annually for April

Using the numbers from the FRED web site the seasonally adjusted number is 5.1%. The BLS is using substitution formulas to lower the CPI number. In other words if the price of a item goes up higher than they deem reasonable they will switch away from that product to a similar product. For example switching from Head and Shoulders shampoo to a generic brand or White Rain, a less expensive brand. Using their calculation 5.1% becomes 4.8 and 7.7% becomes 3.2% I imagine its just a matter of time before the data is scrubbed from the web site and we are completely in the dark.

It should be noted that there is a temporary sell off of gold and investors getting back into the dollar. This does not mean that the investors are correct in placing their trust in the dollar. The sell off in commodities is a temporary trend.

The Federal Reserve cooled down on monetizing the debt due to some temporary roll over of debt. The monetary base was down from 4-20-2011 to 5-4-2011 1.3%. Another temporary relief from Bernanke. As we approach July all this will dissipate.